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Accding to avionics and instrument-maker Honeywell: "The business-jet industry’s recovery may take a year longer than forecast, picking up in late 2011 and accelerating in 2012, as companies defer purchases amid doubts about the economy, Honeywell International Inc. said.

Global plane deliveries probably will fall to a range of 675 to 700 in 2010 and stay at fewer than 700 next year, down from 849 in 2009, according to Honeywell, an avionics and cockpit-instruments maker that surveyed about 1,200 corporate flight departments worldwide."

From Bloomberg.

 Rail traffic has been on fire this year, which has been cited in some quarters as a sign of economic recovery. But it is one type of rail traffic that is driving growth: intermodal. Container freight shipped via rail has risen 17.3% (in September) and 17% year-to-date through August in a startling contrast to the anemic economy.

 Rails are a key economic indicator, as long as you know what is being shipped from whom to where. (Buffett, through Berkshire’s ownership of BNSF, now has a goldmine of such information.) This week the Wall Street Journal cited Buffett’s “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States” in buying BNSF and added, “he probably should have included China too…Trade volumes driven by emerging markets, and China in particular, have helped make this a pretty good year so far for rail activity…intermodal traffic is shaping up to be as lofty as ‘Mount Everest,’ CSX Chief Financial Officer Oscar Muñoz quipped at an industry conference last month.”

 An increase in inbound rail traffic is a sign of more jobs being outsourced to China. The U.S. trade deficit surged in August, with a record gap with China as the primary cause. Rail traffic is linked closely to trade flows. For example, PIERS Global Intelligence Solutions has cited one reason for the hike in intermodal rail traffic this year as demand for imported Chinese furniture created by the one-time tax credit for U.S. home-buyers. This is certainly no indicator a vibrant economy.

 Buffett has he been pounding on risks of the U.S. trade deficit for years. Some months ago, as I wrote in this Bloomberg column, he compared China’s emerging era of ascendancy to the rise of the U.S. after World War II.

 Buffett speaks most clearly through his wallet. It was patriotic to call the BNSF purchase an “all-in wager on the U.S. economy,” but rails are an all-weather winner for any number of reasons. Infrastructure assets are havens even during a deep double-dip recession, and will prosper no matter who is selling what to whom.  I’ve argued in the past the BNSF deal was actually a bearish bet, and it still looks that way to me.

 From Lorax: 

Alice,

 Apologies for sticking this post in the wrong place, but I don't know how to start a new topic...Way back when, I brought to your attention The Ascent of George Washington, by John Ferling. It comes to mind because Ron Chernow's new biography of Washington has just come out to rave reviews. I'm curious if you ever had a chance to read the Ferling book, and if so, what you thought of it.

Hi Lorax, I still haven't read it; I've been reading Hitch 22 and The World Is What It Is (V.S. Naipul's biography). I like contemporary memoir and biography because their willing self-disclosure often more than makes up for the lack of extensive primary sourcing. Anyway, now that Chernow is out, which would you recommend? 

Yes, it would be great if Buffett and Gates came back from China with commitments from some Chinese billionaires to give half their wealth to charity. But every news story I've read throws cold water on this idea -- by stressing the Chinese lack of philanthropic tendencies, their clannish desire to keep to money within a family, the sheer novelty of staggering wealth in a so-recently communitarian society; in other words subtly suggests, without directly saying so, that this is about as likely to happen as Hong Kong is to return to British rule.

Paralleling the talk of low expectations for the philanthropic tour, a new rumor is circulating that Berkshire will buy some greater portion of BYD.

What are we to think of all this?

If Buffett and Gates can sow some seeds for the future, that's plenty good enough -- their philanthropic mission should be scored as a success. While it would be great if they bagged an actual pledge, Buffett is a deep believer that people have the right to do what they want with their own money (look how he defended his right to wait to give his own away for all those years). He's playing for the long game here. Ten years from now, if a dozen Chinese billionaires cite a lengthy dialogue with him and Gates as the reason they've made donations, that's better than if one person is strong-armed into doing it today.

Meanwhile, consider the psychological impact on Chinese business-owning families of meeting with Warren Buffett, who is idolized in their country. Imagine how they will feel about Berkshire Hathaway afterwards. When they're thinking about selling part of their companies, whose face will appear in their imaginations, hovering above a yuan sign?

There's probably nothing smarter Buffett could do to drum up investing opportunities for Berkshire than to go on this philanthropic tour. Is this a coincidence? No. Buffett, the master of efficiency, always has more than one reason for anything he does.

So will Berkshire buy in more of BYD? Probably. Buffett has wanted to make a Chinese acquisition, or two, or three, for a lnog time. And how Berkshire treats this investment is being closely watched in China as a test case.